Tuesday's primary: Big stakes, few voters

Published May 3, 2010 at 5:58 p.m.
Pete Norman is a conservative Republican fed up with Washington, worried about federal spending and looking for a change.

He's also among the fraction of N.C. voters expected to turn out for Tuesday's primary elections.

In a low-turnout primary, voters like Norman will have a bigger role in choosing nominees for the U.S. Senate and House, the state legislature and local officials from district court to county commissioner.

"It's a very meaningful election," said Norman, 70, a retiree from Harrisburg. "It's going to allow conservatives to indicate to the incumbents we're not happy with what's going on in Washington."

The primaries will help determine not only who goes to Congress but who draws North Carolina's voting districts for the next decade, and who dispenses justice in counties across the state.

Tuesday's elections could topple some incumbents, particularly in the N.C. General Assembly. But analysts say the voter anger that threatens elected officials across the country may not echo in North Carolina - at least in the primary season.

"I don't think we're going to see that play itself out at all in Tuesday's elections," said Tom Jensen, director of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling. "The feelings of anger need (campaign) money to back them up to have a real-world impact, and that just hasn't happened. It could definitely be different in the fall."

Tuesday's nominees face off in November.

No easy outlet for anger

A Washington Post-ABC News poll last week showed widespread voter discontent.

Like voters across the country, many in North Carolina are frustrated by a fractious Congress, a still-sour economy and the paradox of rising federal spending and deep budget cuts in state and local government.

Generally, voters take out their frustration on the party in power. But if that does play out, it's more likely to show up in November.

"There is an anti-incumbent feeling, but practically speaking it is an anti-Democrat feeling," said John Hood, president of the conservative John Locke Foundation. "If you were really angry about the direction of the country (or) Obamacare, what would you do in the primary? It's just not obvious. They don't see the primary as their chance to speak."

One complicating factor for critics is the sheer number of candidates in many races.

For example, U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, a Cherryville Republican who represents the 10th District, has three challengers. U.S. Rep. Howard Coble of Greensboro has five. Republican Sen. Richard Burr has three little-known opponents.

"There's just no way to make a clear case against an incumbent when you have such a crowded field," Hood said.

Despite his frustration with Washington, Norman cast an early vote for Burr. So did Douglas Broccone. Though he fears "a slide toward a Euro-socialist" government, the 40-year-old Broccone supports the GOP incumbent over his three challengers.

"I don't hold it against incumbents necessarily," said Broccone, of Concord. "It's about what they do."

Partisans to rule the day

The Post-ABC poll found that 57 percent of American voters - Republicans and Democrats alike - expect to "look around" for a candidate other than their congressional incumbent.

"You're not just throwing out the Democratic bums, you're throwing all the bums out," said Jensen of the polling firm. But that may not happen until November.

Tuesday's elections will hinge in large part on people like Roger Haynes, 62. The disabled vet from Concord plans to vote in November, but he'll pass on the primary.

Most voters will join him.

State elections director Gary Bartlett described early voting turnout as "dismal." He predicts a statewide primary turnout of around 20 percent.

Mecklenburg County may not top 15 percent, said elections director Michael Dickerson.

That's a marked contrast to the presidential year of 2008 when 37 percent turned out for the primary and 70 percent for the general election.

"We'll have a much more exciting general election than we've had a primary," said Jensen.

Though unaffiliated voters are eligible to vote in either party primary, they aren't expected to turn out in great numbers.

"Partisans," said Hood, "will dominate the primary."

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